Looking north on Highway 99W toward Dundee. At left is a bend in McDougall Road. If built, the southern end of the Newberg-Dundee Bypass would run roughly parallel with 99W to the right.

Chrissy Ragulsky
NewsRegister.com

At this point in the saga of the Newberg-Dundee Transportation Improvement Project, one can hardly be blamed for being confused.

It is no longer simply a question of what should be done about traffic congestion on Highway 99W north of McMinnville, or an issue that can be neatly characterized by "pro-" and "anti-bypass" positions. The sheer number of stories and rumors begs a new question: What is actually being done about the Newberg-Dundee Bypass?

The answer, based on interviews with ODOT officials and others, is that while it remains on a track toward eventually getting built, that track is on a steep uphill grade and is strewn with obstacles.

According to the agency, the bypass' prospects are neither as rosy as suggested by its most visible champion - Yamhill County Commissioner Leslie Lewis - nor as bleak as posited by its most visible opponent - State Sen. Gary George. But they see it taking at least 10 more years and as much as three-quarters of a billion dollars before rubber actually meets road.

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It's easy to be cynical. The idea of a bypass around Newberg and Dundee has been bandied about since World War II. The only constant has been delay - sometimes comically so.

In May 2001, for example, ODOT breathlessly announced that all concerned agencies agreed there really was a need for a bypass.

At the time, the official best-case scenario was that the all-important "record of decision" on the Environmental Impact Statement would be in hand by December 2002. But it wasn't actually in hand until August 2005.

That was what officials call the first of two tiers of the EIS. Completed and made official in 2005, it culminated in the selection of a corridor, known as Route 3J.

The second tier is in the works now. It is focusing on more detailed design and engineering questions within that corridor.

Early this year, Lewis and ODOT were expecting public hearings on the Tier 2 study over the summer.

Delays have since delayed that into late 2008 and beyond. ODOT is now looking at hearings next spring, which puts off completion of the EIS until early 2010.

"That actually is the last thing that we have to do to have a project that is ready to go for construction," Lewis said recently during a campaign appearance with her opponent, Kris Bledsoe. But officials at ODOT say that's optimistic.

What isn't generally understood is that the design and engineering work being done now doesn't produce an actual design. That is, it doesn't produce the kind of blueprints contractors unfurl in a trailer parked behind a chain-link fence encircling a construction zone.

What officials term "buildable plans" could take another two to three years to produce, after completion of the EIS, according to ODOT Area 2 Manager Tim Potter. That's typically an in-house project, and how long it takes depends, Potter said, on how many engineers are assigned to work on it.

"Probably the earliest we could start construction, if we had all the money and someone pointed a gun at our head and said, 'Go,' would be 2015," Potter said.

Officials estimate construction of the entire 11-mile bypass would take three to four years - essentially putting a finished product at least a decade away.

All such timelines, officials emphasize, assume funding is in place for construction. And as of now, of course, it isn't.

Lewis and other bypass advocates have suggested a phased approach to construction. They are eying a first phase that would be quicker and cheaper.

They have set their sights on what amounts to basically the middle third of the bypass - from an interchange with Highway 219 east of Newberg to a point just south of Dundee, leaving costly and complicated interchanges for later phases. With the proposed Dundee interchange on hold, the initial segment would connect with Highway 99W via a temporary ramp near Fulquartz Road.

The two stretches on each end of the 11-mile route, from Fulquartz to an interchange near McDougall's Corner, and from Highway 219 north to a Highway 99W junction on Rex Hill, would be built later. Dundee would get its interchange in the later phases as well.

"The first phase of the bypass is probably our fastest way to get the congestion relieved in Newberg and Dundee," Lewis said. However, it raises issues ODOT hasn't yet dealt with.

Agency officials acknowledge they have discussed that possibility. But they say they haven't gone so far as to vet it with the Federal Highway Administration, and would consider doing so only after getting a record of decision on the Tier 2 EIS in 2010.

"There may be more federal issues to resolve if this phased approach gets traction and funding is identified," said ODOT spokesman Adam Torgeson.

There are no "official" numbers associated with the phased approach. But Lewis and other advocates are estimating it at $220 million to $250 million, including the cost of property acquisition.

Asked for a map illustrating the proposed first phase, Potter said ODOT didn't have one that was "really suitable for public display." And if the design, phasing and timing are murky, the financing is even murkier.

By ODOT's latest accounting, the full 11-mile bypass could run anywhere from $423 million to $620 million, not counting the cost of right-of-way acquisition. If that is included, the projected range swells to $573 million to $770 million.

Earlier this month, the Mid-Willamette Valley Area Commission on Transportation put the bypass on a list of projects it would like to see pitched by the Oregon Transportation Commission for federal earmarks in 2009. The OTC will consider it and other proposals and vote on the list in December.

Federal earmarks flowing to Oregon so far have been used mainly either for planning or, of late, right-of-way acquisition.

Earmarks generally come from two sources, both of which require congressional approval - the annual appropriations bill and the federal highway bill. The latter, a five-year spending plan, is a popular vehicle for carrying dollars back to the states for local projects.

But the earmarks coming to Oregon have generally been relatively small. Privately, at least, some ODOT officials say funding a project with such a huge price tag is, at best, a long shot. It's a sentiment that bypass opponent Sid Friedman articulates clearly.

"The only way they could fund it is if the feds dropped half a billion dollars in our laps," he said. "The odds of them dropping half a billion dollars in our laps is close to zero."

Meanwhile, the idea of a regional bypass has emerged. Lewis opposes it; Bledsoe hasn't gone so far as to give it a full endorsement, but calls for a more regional approach to transportation.

On its face, it seems appealing enough - cutting across a considerably flatter expanse toward Interstate 5 through Marion County.

Marion County Commissioner Patti Milne - who worked with Lewis as state lawmaker in the 1990s drafting legislation that enabled tolling - has heard that one before, and knows that "rumors are out there again."

Such a bypass would chew up some of the most productive farmland in Oregon, she notes. And since it wouldn't come near any large population centers, Marion County residents wouldn't even derive any benefit: It would be, ultimately, a $500 million gift from Marion County to its northern neighbor.

Milne said she and her colleagues have repeatedly opposed the idea, and have gone so far as to pass resolutions to that effect every few years.

"As long as I've been a commissioner, we have taken a stand against a bypass" through Marion County, she said. "The current board has maintained this position."